Unemployment Insurance Claims Data Shed Light on the Local Economic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Central Utah

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“You have power over your mind — not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.” Marcus Aurelius

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses lost revenues and workers lost jobs. But because of the time it takes to collect and collate data, economists have been left without much information to quantify the economic impacts at the local level.

But there is one ray of data illumination. Claims for unemployment benefits are promptly available and provide information about a large cross section of the economy. This post will outline what light unemployment claims data sheds on the state of central Utah’s economy.

While not all workers are protected by unemployment insurance laws, roughly 95% of jobs are covered. This makes claims data an exceptional source of information about the economy. Not included under unemployment insurance laws are most self-employed workers, about half of agricultural employment, unpaid family workers, railroad personnel (covered separately) and many nonprofit organizations (such as churches). Also, some out-of-work employees may not have worked a sufficient work history to qualify for unemployment insurance benefits, but may file anyway. Fortunately, in this time of economic distress, the social safety nets of the unemployment insurance program, special national COVID-19 funding and social programs are working together to keep workers’ income and well-being stable.

Unemployment claimants and the unemployed; they aren’t the same

Also, keep in mind that, in addition to individuals drawing unemployment benefits, the unemployment rate includes those entering and re-entering the workforce and noncovered groups without current employment. This means the number of “unemployed” will be greater than the number of claimants. In “normal” times, only about 40% of the “unemployed” are claiming benefits. The generally reported unemployment rate also has a work-search requirement. If you haven’t made any minimal attempts to find work, you aren’t counted as “unemployed.”

Watch this Space

While this analysis won’t be updated regularly, new data will be added to the data visualization on a weekly basis allowing readers to check back for the latest information.

An Unprecedented Event

Not surprisingly, first-time claims for unemployment benefits soared in Utah and across the nation as the pandemic swept across the country. This increase is unprecedented since the creation of unemployment insurance coverage during the Great Depression. Week 12 (beginning March 16) marks the start of this unparalleled surge in claims. On a positive note, while new claims for unemployment benefits have skyrocketed in Utah, the state currently shows one of the lowest claims rates in the nation.

For most central Utah counties, initial claims peaked in the third week of the pandemic and have since tapered downward. Sevier County proved the lone exception peaking in the second week. Since mid-March, more than 1,383 new claims were filed in the region. In all of 2019, only 1,270 initial claims were filed. By week 19, claims measured considerably lower but continued to run substantially greater than in previous years, basically on par with the Great Recession.

Here’s another example of the tremendous flood of new claims. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, counties in central Utah averaged a total of 50 first-time claims per week. This time period in early 2020 included seasonally high-claims weeks in January. In the weeks following, an average of 173 claims were filed each week for an increase of 604%.

However, despite this historic increase in initial claims, most of central Utah fared much better than other regions in the state and nation. Even though Utah had the third lowest claims rate in the nation, its new claims increased 1,378% during the pandemic. Statewide, claims filed during the pandemic measured 10% of employment covered by unemployment insurance laws compared to only 6% in central Utah.

Who took the hardest hit?

Counties with a high-dependence on tourism felt the greatest economic and employment shocks in the slowdown. In central Utah, only Wayne County maintains a significant share of employment in tourism-related industries. It was also the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. In Wayne County, roughly 11% of individuals covered by unemployment insurance have filed a claim. Moreover, many seasonal Wayne County workers were already drawing unemployment benefits before the pandemic began. In contrast, in Millard County only 4% of covered workers filed a claim in the weeks following the start of the pandemic. Sanpete (5%) and Sevier (6%) counties also displayed relatively low rates. While Piute County’s figure measured somewhat higher at 10%, many of these claims reflect persons employed outside the county rather than within it.

Tourism and COVID-19

Especially in the early stages of the pandemic, this is a story of tourism-dependent industries. Almost 22% of post-COVID-19 initial claims filed in central Utah represented workers previously employed in accommodations and food services. In addition, the true effect of the pandemic on this industry is masked by a large number of claims classified as industry “unknown” in the early days of the claims flood. Undoubtedly, many of these claims would rightfully be classified in accommodations/food services if the appropriate information were available.

Other high-claims industries included healthcare/social assistance (reflecting the cessation of elective procedures and visits) and retail trade. Many of these high-claims industries reflect their high share of total employment in general. In addition, they often serve the public face to face or have encountered damage due to the decline in demand for travel constraints.

The High and the Low

Because of its job-to-job nature, the construction industry typically accounts for 30-50% of first-time claims in the region. However, although construction’s new claims have also increased, they have increased at a much slower-than-average rate. After the COVID-19 pandemic hit, construction contributed only about 4% of first-time claims. Ease of social-distancing and good weather have helped construction maintain its employment levels. New claims measured just 3% of covered construction employment.

Only a portion of agricultural employment is covered by unemployment insurance laws. However, as companies work to keep America fed, agribusiness in the region laid off few employees. Only 2% of central Utah’s covered agricultural workers have filed a claim during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Public administration, utilities, mining and educational services (including public and higher education), have also managed to keep a higher percentage of their workforces employed.

County by County

Millard County

• Along with Beaver County, Millard County showed the lowest COVID-19-related claims rate in the state (4%).
• Millard County has relatively high concentrations of employment in industries (such as covered agriculture and utilities) least affected by the pandemic.

• Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Millard County averaged three unemployment claims per week compared to 26 new claims afterward, an increase of 758%.
• Unlike most areas where accommodations/food services generated the largest number of claims, in Millard County, healthcare/social assistance topped the industry ranking followed by retail trade.
• Construction, healthcare/social assistance and accommodations/food services showed roughly equal claims as a percentage of covered employment.
• Millard County accounted for 12% of the Central Utah Region’s new claims prior to the pandemic, and 15% of claims during the pandemic.

Piute County

• Less-populated Piute County maintains little employment covered under Utah’s unemployment insurance laws. In addition, a notable share of residents are employed in other counties which muddies some analysis.

• Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Piute County averaged one new claim per week, compared to an average of four claims per week during the pandemic. This change represents an increase of 610%.
• Roughly 45% of claims were filed from workers furloughed from the accommodations/food service industry. A large share of claims from the “unknown” industry category most likely originated from this industry as well.
• Other industries contributed few new claims.
• Piute County accounted for the same percentage (2%) of the region’s claims before and during the pandemic.

Sanpete County

• After spiking in the early weeks of the slowdown, Sanpete County’s claims are now running roughly equivalent to the numbers experienced in the previous recession. In most Utah counties, first-time claims continue to flow in at a much higher level.
• In the weeks before the COVID-19 pandemic, Sanpete County averaged eight initial claims per week. After the pandemic hit, claimants filed an average of 58 claims per week, marking an increase of 588%.
• In Sanpete County, first-time claims during the pandemic period measured 5% of covered employment. That places Sanpete County near the bottom of a county-by-county ranking.
• Unusually, healthcare/social assistance showed the highest number of new claims followed by the “usual suspect” — accommodations/food services — in the second spot.
• Sanpete County showed a notably high share of claims emanating from an unspecified industry.
• The relatively high percentage of mining claims compared to industry employment in Sanpete County likely reflects individuals working in other counties.

Sevier County

• Sevier County generated the highest number of claims in the region during the pandemic.
• Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Sevier County averaged 10 first-time claims per week compared with 58 claims during the pandemic. This increase of 627% ranked as the largest in the region, but far below the statewide average of 1,378%.
• Accommodations/food services, healthcare/social assistance and retail trade originated the highest number of initial claims after the pandemic hit.
• More than one-fourth of Sevier County’s COVID-19 initial claims were initiated in the accommodations/food services industry.
• Sevier County’s regional share of new claims held relatively steady before and during the pandemic.

Wayne County

• Of the five counties located in central Utah, Wayne County maintains the heaviest dependency on tourism-related employment. It also shows the highest first-time claims to covered employment ratio in the area.
• Before the COVID-19 pandemic, an average of three initial claims were being filed in Wayne County compared to an average of 14 claims in the following weeks. The pre-to-post-COVID-19 increase registered 410%, the lowest in the region. Many seasonal workers were already drawing unemployment insurance benefits.
• Initial claims for unemployment benefits filed during the pandemic as a percent of covered employment measured 11%, near the middle of a ranking of all Utah counties.
• Here too, accommodations/food services was the source of the largest number of new claims, trailed far behind by retail trade.
• More than half of all new claims during the pandemic time period originated from accommodations and food services. Roughly 20% of workers in this industry filed a new claim for unemployment after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many seasonal workers were already receiving benefits.

Health Insurance in the Time of COVID-19

U.S. Census Bureau releases new 2018 Small Area Health Insurance Estimates
By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

 

“Americans want jobs. They want affordable health insurance. They want an education.” John McCain

 

 

As the world hunkers down under the effects of a pandemic, the need for health insurance coverage becomes even more apparent than usual. Just how many Utahns are covered by health insurance? Who are the uninsured? Data just released by the U.S. Census Bureau (2018 Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE)) provides enlightenment on healthcare coverage in the under-65-year-old population. Additional demographic information is available from the American Community Survey, rounding out our understanding of the insured and uninsured in Utah.

 

Small Area Estimates

The SAHIE estimates cover the population under 65 years of age. Of course, virtually all citizens 65 and older are covered by government-provided Medicare benefits. Because these estimates date back to 2008, two years before the signing of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), they suggest the how the ACA has changed the health-insurance landscape in Utah.

 

 

Compared to other counties across the United States, Utah’s counties, for the most part, had mid-level to high levels of insured individuals in 2018 (the most recent data available). National regions of high coverage include northern eastern states and the west coast. Texas seems to have the highest uninsured levels with a vast number of counties experiencing uninsured rates of greater than 20%. Most Utah counties have uninsured shares below 15%.

 

In 2018, Morgan, Davis, Daggett and Emery counties showed the highest insured rates in Utah. In contrast, San Juan, Duchesne, Uintah, Piute and Garfield experienced the lowest rates of health insurance coverage.

That was then, this is now

The number and share of Utahns covered by health insurance have certainly improved in the past 10 years. In 2008, roughly 83.7% of the under-65 population was insured compared to about 89.6% in 2018, an increase of nearly 6 percentage points. In terms of individuals, that increase represents a gain of 427,000 insured Utahns.

 

However, coverage appears to have peaked in 2016 at 90.3% and has since retrenched. The repeal of ACA’s individual mandate and price increases, due to the elimination of cost-sharing reductions to payers selling individual plans, likely contributed to the recent slight decline in Utah coverage. However, the state’s Medicaid expansion, effective in 2020, should help bump up insured rates.

Less-populated counties, with initial low insured rates, experienced the strongest gains in insured shares. Daggett, Rich, Grand, Kane and San Juan counties displayed gains of roughly 10-points or higher. While all counties showed an improvement in the insured share of the under-65-year population, Salt Lake, Carbon, Summit and Millard counties experienced the smallest gains.

 

Highlights from the American Community Survey (2014-2018)

• Roughly 58% of Utahns (of all ages) are insured in full or in part by employer-provided plans. Only 9% directly purchase their entire insurance coverage from a private provider. In total, nearly 70% of the state’s citizens have private coverage.
• In total, public plans (Medicare and Medicaid) cover roughly 12% of Utah’s population. About 7% of the population is covered by Medicaid with another 3% covered by just Medicare. Roughly 1% of Utahns have coverage under both Medicare and Medicaid.
• Those with a combination of public and private coverage account for another 9% of Utah’s population. That group includes 4% of Utahns who carry Medicare plus a supplemental source of private insurance. On the other hand, 10% have no healthcare insurance at all.
• The very young and the very old are most likely to carry health insurance. Thanks to Medicare, individuals 65 years and older are the most likely to be covered (99%). On the other end of the spectrum, children under 6 years old displayed a coverage rate of 94%, with 6-18 year olds not far behind (92%).
• Individuals between the ages of 26 and 34 are the least likely to have health insurance. Only 84% are covered in Utah.
• By gender, females (91%) are just slightly more likely than males (89%) to maintain health insurance. This may be partially due to the dominance of women in the highly-covered 65-years-and-older group.
• Education shows a high correlation with health insurance coverage. Persons with a bachelor’s degree or higher show the highest coverage rate — 96%. On the other end of the scale, individuals who did not graduate from high school maintained an insured rate of just 68%.
• Not surprisingly, of all labor force statuses, the unemployed are least likely to have health insurance (65%). Interestingly, those not in the labor force (which would include the retired), display an insured rate just slightly lower than the employed. In addition, based on work experience, individuals working full-time, year-round are the most likely group be insured.
• Household income is also a good predictor of health insurance coverage. Those with the highest incomes ($100,000 and over) have the highest coverage rates (95%). In contrast, those with the lowest incomes (under $25,000) have the lowest coverage rates (81%). a
• Latino and Native Americans show the lowest rates of any major ethnic/racial groups. Rates for both sets measure just 73%. White, non-Latino Utahns maintain the highest health insurance coverage shares.
• Only 56% of noncitizens have health insurance in Utah compared to 92 percent of Utahns born in the United States.

The U.S. Census Bureau Releases County Population Estimates for 2019

Next year, actual counts from the decennial census will be available

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist
“Any time you have population growth, there are business opportunities.” Roland Dorson

 

Hopefully, all Utahns are taking a break from COVID-19 concerns to respond (by phone, online or by mail) to their 2020 Census questionnaires (https://2020census.gov/). Since the Census results help determine how billions of dollars in federal funding are spent, accurate counts are important in order for Utah’s communities to get their “fair share.”

 

Because the actual counts are not yet available, the U.S. Census Bureau has just released the last set of population estimates for the decade. What do they show?

• Iron County took the lead in population growth rates for 2019 — up by 4.1%. Following close behind was its neighbor, Washington County, with a growth rate of 3.5%.
• Other fast-growing areas included counties at the edge of urban spread, such as Juab, Tooele and Wasatch.
• Although Piute County saw an increase of only about 30 individuals, its small base population also resulted in a strong percentage increase (2.9%).
• Utah County showed the highest percentage increase (2.4%) of the big-four Wasatch Front counties.
• Estimates for both San Juan and Daggett counties suggested a decline in population, while Duchesne County’s population appeared to hold steady.
• Utah County experienced the largest numeric gain in population — nearly 15,000 residents, followed by Salt Lake County (up about 12,000) and Washington County (up nearly 6,000).
• Utah and Washington counties finished neck-and-neck in the race for net in-migration. Utah County’s net in-migration measured 5,200 compared to 5,100 for Washington County.
• Several counties displayed net out-migration. Most notable on the list were Duchesne and San Juan counties. Daggett, Emery and Summit counties showed lesser out-migration estimates.
• For its size, Utah County shows a relatively high number of births and a low number of deaths, placing its natural increase not far behind population-dense Salt Lake County.
• Although Washington and Cache counties showed roughly equivalent numbers of births, deaths in Washington County measured much higher.
• In 2019, Emery County experienced its first (albeit small) population growth in more than a decade.
• Morgan County’s 2019 growth rate slipped below the state average for the first time this decade.
• Wayne County saw its best population growth (1.5%) of the past 10 years in 2019.
• Between 2010 and 2019, Wasatch County was the third fastest growing county in the nation. Washington County (St George, UT MSA) was the fifth fastest growing metropolitan area in the United States between 2010 and 2019. Its relatively small size contributes mathematically to a high growth rate. The Provo-Orem, UT MSA ranked ninth.

These aren’t the only estimates in town. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah has assembled the Utah Population Committee (UPC) to reinstitute the population-estimates work previously conducted by the Utah Population Estimates Committee (UPEC). These estimates can be found here.
U.S. Census Bureau estimates use the same methodology in producing population figures for every county in the nation. Therefore, for nationwide comparisons, U.S. Census Bureau estimates may have the advantage. On the other hand, UPC population estimates have the benefit of local-analyst expertise and additional data sources.

Where Have All the Young Workers Gone?

Young workers in Utah and the U.S. comprise a smaller share of the labor force

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

 

"We should be trying to reach the young workers because that’s when you’re most idealistic and have least fear."  John Lennon

 

One of the most striking labor market changes of the last decade and a half is the declining participation of teenagers in the labor force. Nationally, teenage participation topped out at almost 59 percent in the late 1970s, and today stands at roughly 36 percent. While the trend isn’t as pronounced in Utah as it is nationwide; here, too, young people are less likely to be employed or looking for work than they were as the century began. The reasons for this phenomena are not clear. However, more after-school activities and increased borrowing to pay for post-secondary education (rather than earning while learning) may factor into this decline.

 

On the other hand, some characteristics of youth workers have changed little. Utah teens still show some of the highest labor force participation rates in the nation. Also, young people continue to show the highest unemployment rates, the lowest wages and the top turnover rates of any age group.

 

New GDP figures will add to the local economic-analysis tool box

New GDP figures will add to the local economic-analysis tool box

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“We will find neither national purpose nor personal satisfaction in a mere continuation of economic progress, in an endless amassing of worldly goods. We cannot measure national spirit by the Dow Jones Average, nor national achievement by the Gross National Product.”  Robert Kennedy

As a regional economist, I’m routinely asked for gross domestic product (GDP) figures for Utah’s counties. After all, nationally, GDP is routinely tracked as an economic indicator. “Sorry,” I say, “the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) doesn’t produce GDP statistics for counties (unless they are a metropolitan statistical area). But data-lovers, “the times, they are a-changin’.”

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has just released proto-type county GDP statistics for 2012 to 2015. You can explore the data in the visualization that follows.

Yes, the proto-type information is dated. However, data-users can take a first-look at the series and assist BEA by providing feedback and comments on the prototype data via e-mail at gdpbycounty@bea.gov. Official statistics are scheduled for release in December 2019.

When the official data is released, this new data will add to our ability to analyze Utah’s local economies.

What do the proto-type figures reveal? Here are a few highlights:

In 2015, eight Utah counties experienced a decline in GDP following a trend similar to 2013 and 2014.

• Less-populated counties were most likely to experience a bout of declining GDP.
• Daggett County, one of Utah’s smallest in both geographic size and population, showed the highest GDP growth rate in 2015 with Washington County showing the highest rate of expansion among more-populated counties.
• It wasn’t uncommon for Utah counties to experience at least one year of GDP contraction between 2013 and 2015.
• Not surprisingly, the vast majority of GDP is generated along the Wasatch Front.

Historic Road Creek Inn reopens as the Capitol Reef field station; now available for rental groups

Road Creek Inn, located near Capitol Reef National Park, Fishlake National Forest, Canyonlands National Park and the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument, is an historic hotel in Loa that now serves as Southern Utah University’s Capitol Reef field station.

The hotel was completely renovated in 2012, with 15 guest rooms, large gathering areas and a full kitchen, Road Creek Inn is perfect for educational programs, family reunions, weddings, youth camps and conferences.

Now more than 100 years old, Road Creek Inn offers state-of-the-art amenities such as internet access, a sauna for relaxing after a day of hiking, in-room microwaves and refrigerators, standard king and queen rooms and two deluxe suites with three king-sized beds.

SUU’s Capitol Reef field station is now open to the community for rental and to SUU student groups. The facility is surrounded by several historic Mormon pioneer towns and buildings, national parks, lakes, Native American ruins and protected forest lands, and it’s a great environment for student clubs and large groups to get away to another of Utah’s phenomenal outdoor activities. St. George News

Utah's Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for all Utah counties have been posted online here.

Each month, these rates are posted the Monday following the Unemployment Rate Update for Utah.

For more information about seasonally adjusted rates, read a DWS analysis here.

Next update scheduled for March 26th.

Ten Years Later. . .

The Recovery Following the Great Recession

By Mark Knold, Supervising Economist and Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“The term 'business cycle' is imprecise. Economic fluctuations affect everyone, not just businesses, and they are, unlike astral cycles, anything but regular.” Kevin Hassett

Overview

December 2017 marked 10 years since the Great Recession first cast its long shadow across the American economy. The recession officially lasted 18 months, but its consequences can still be seen across the country without having to look very hard. We have not had another recession since.

Utah was hit hard at the time, losing a larger share of jobs than the national average; but, we were fortunate to be one of the most resilient states in terms of economic rebound. There are plenty of states where the Great Recession continues to weigh upon them. Employment levels in 14 states are still not back to their pre-recession peak, and another 29 states have only grown 5.0 percent or less. As the working-age population has grown by more than 5.0 percent, the job gains nationally have not been enough to fully employ working-age labor.

Utah lost 7.0 percent employment during the recession. Since that low, employment has recovered by 18 percent. That is the second best rebound in the nation. From Utah’s pre-recession employment peak to now, Utah’s employment has increased by 9.5 percent, third best in the nation. Yet, Utah’s job growth has not been enough to absorb all of the labor force growth during that time. Utah’s unemployment rate is low, but the percent of the working-age population in the labor force is several percentage points below the pre-recession norm — telling us that potential labor is still not as fully engaged with the job market as before the recession.

As a whole, Utah has had a notable recession rebound, but those gains have not been shared equally across all regions. Just like the national profile, some areas have bounced back strong while others are still lagging behind. The state’s metropolitan areas have grown well, but many of Utah’s rural areas cannot say the same. Nine counties have employment levels below their pre-recession peaks.

In this issue of Local Insights, we profile Utah’s regional and county economies in light of the 10-year span since the Great Recession.

Central Utah and the Recovery

The five counties in Central Utah — Millard, Piute, Sanpete, Sevier and Wayne — each experienced the Great Recession and the ensuing recovery in their own way. However, in general, the area was slow to join the recovery job-creation party. Most counties participated in the pre-recession boom in only a minor fashion. Yet all suffered from the national downturn. Several counties in Central Utah have yet to regain their prerecession employment levels despite a national recovery of more than 100 months.

Sanpete County

Sanpete County was one of the few in the region to experience a surge of employment during the pre-bust boom. Employment peaked in 2008 at nearly 7,700 nonfarm jobs. Employment totals bottomed out in 2010, after an 11-percent, 800-job decline, then held steady through 2011. A surge in employment during 2012, collapsed in 2013. The county then experienced strong expansion until 2016, when job growth slowed somewhat. While Utah had regained its pre-recession employment level by 2013, Sanpete County took an additional three years to surpass its 2008 employment total.

“New and Improved?” A look at the Retail Trade Industry in Central Utah

By Mark Knold, Supervising Economist and Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“Almost no one wants to admit the genius of Jeff Bezos and Amazon. Apparently, many have failed to see that Amazon has become the world's biggest retail company.” Hubert Burda

Consumer spending makes up around 68 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. Consumer spending is individuals and families purchasing groceries, clothing, recreation, stocks, insurance, education and much more. The transactions cover a broad swath of economic activity.

Much of the nation’s consumer spending is captured via retail trade. A useful retail trade definition is “the re-sale (sale without transformation) of new and used goods to the general public, for personal or household consumption or utilization.” Not all consumer spending is captured through retail trade transactions, but a large share is.

Broad-category examples of retail trade sectors are motor vehicle sales, furniture stores, electronic stores, building material stores, grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations, clothing stores and department stores, among others. Then there is the relatively new and emerging part of the retail trade sphere—non-store retailers. These are establishments that sell products on the internet. Examples include Amazon, Zappos, Overstock.com, or eBay. These types of retailers have grown rapidly in the past 15 years and their presence is reshaping the retail trade landscape.

Whereas in the past nearly all retail transactions were done through traditional brick-and-mortar stores, now a significant and growing segment is diverted to internet sales. The consumer shops online and goods are delivered to the customer’s doorstep. One can see that the number of brick-and-mortar stores and the level of local sales across the country are being endangered by this economic evolution.

The brick-and-mortar reduction is beginning to show its economic presence in the United States employment numbers. While the U.S. economy is finally expanding at a healthy pace this side of the Great Recession, one of the few industries not rising with this tide is retail trade. While overall retail sales are increasing, employment is not. Traditionally, as a population increases, retail trade employment grows simultaneously, since population growth and consumer spending volume is an integrated dynamic. If studied deeply, a certain ratio of retail trade employment growth spawned from population growth would emerge. Before the internet, the vast majority of all consumer sales occurred in the immediate community or region. But now, the internet is diverting these sales away from the local community — and with internet sales growing, its market share will increase.

We do not yet know how much brick-and-mortar erosion will eventually occur. And will such a phenomenon hit some areas more than others (such as urban vs. rural; or local vs. tourist spending)? These are touch points that economist will be watching as this internet sales phenomenon continues to grow within the national and Utah economies.

In light of this change, in this quarter’s Local Insights we are profiling retail trade employment throughout Utah’s local regions. This can offer a profile of where retail trade is now in a local economy, and possibly how much of the sector could become vulnerable to the internet-sales phenomenon.

All regions can be viewed through the Local Insights web portal. The following is a retail trade profile for the Central Region:

Slow Going

Just how important is retail trade employment in Central Utah? In 2016, roughly 3,000 Central Utah workers were employed in retail trade representing 14 percent of total nonfarm employment in the region. That’s somewhat higher than the statewide retail average of 12 percent. However, although retail trade employment has ebbed and flowed during boom, recession and recovery, the overall trend remains essentially flat. In fact, Central Utah has not yet regained the retail employment levels of the pre-recession boom. While lackluster population growth is probably the main factor in the sluggish retail sector, perhaps online buying plays a part as well.

Most Central Utah counties experienced strong retail trade employment growth in the booming mid-2000s. However, recession stole most of these gains and Central Utah has struggled to add retail employment even during the recovery. Wayne and Millard counties experienced some of the region’s best retail job expansion in recent years, but have yet to show consistent improvement. They are the only two counties to have regained their pre-recession employment levels. Sanpete County has seen steady improvement in the last three years, but growth rates remained moderate.

Tis the Season

Retail trade employment can be very seasonal in nature. In the Wayne County economy, a strong tourism and recreation component produces a significant seasonal pattern. Employment peaks in the summer months and bottoms out in January or February. Retail trade jobs almost double between trough and peak in Wayne County.

Seasonality is not as pronounced in the remaining Central Utah counties. The two most populated counties (Sanpete and Sevier) do show a moderate increase in retail jobs during the holiday season.

Dependency

Some counties in Central Utah are more dependent on retail trade employment than others. Statewide, retail trade employment accounts for about 12 percent of total nonfarm jobs. Sevier (16 percent), Millard (15 percent) and Wayne (13 percent) counties all show higher percentages of retail trade employment than the state. Sevier County attracts shoppers from outside the county boundaries. Millard County is relatively far away from more populous shopping areas, and Wayne County’s tourism appears to pump up its retail employment.

Location quotients (LQ) provide another way of looking at the importance of an industry. These ratios compare an area’s industry employment share to that of the nation. A retail trade LQ of 1 indicates the area’s industry employment makes up the same share of employment as that industry does nationwide. A location quotient greater than 1 means the area’s industry has a greater employment share than the United States. Utah’s retail trade location quotient measures just higher than 1. However, Sevier County has a retail trade LQ of nearly 1.5, signifying the distinct importance of retail employment in this county. Millard and Wayne counties also show notable retail trade LQs — both in the range of 1.2. On the other hand, Sanpete County (which is relatively close to Utah County shopping) shows an LQ of roughly 1.

In Sevier and Millard counties, the share of retail trade employment has remained fairly steady over time. However, in Sanpete County, the importance of retail trade jobs has steadily declined since the beginning of the recession. Wayne County’s retail trade industry has taken over a more important role in the labor market, partly due to a change in the industry mix when the county lost its largest employer several years back.

Relationships

Population per retail worker also provides insights into the retail trade industry’s local importance. Statewide, there are roughly 16 residents per retail trade job. With just under 15 inhabitants per retail sales worker, Sevier County is the only Central Utah county to register a lower number than the state. This lower-than-average figure arises because Sevier County acts as a regional shopping destination for many rural neighbors. With its sparse population, Piute County showed a whopping 78 residents per retail trade worker. Most of the population is apparently doing their primary shopping in nearby Sevier County. In Wayne County, the number of residents per retail job has dropped in recent years as retail employment showed strong gains.

Down to Subsectors

In Central Utah, food and beverage stores dominate subsector employment, accounting for almost 25 percent of retail trade jobs. Gasoline stations and general merchandise store (e.g., Wal-Mart) show the next largest employment portion with 18 percent each. Motor vehicle/parts dealers and building materials/garden dealers also account for 10 percent of more of the retail sales workforce.

The share of Central Utah employment at food and beverage stores (25 percent) measures almost double the statewide share (15 percent). Building/garden supplies dealers and gasoline stations also provide a significantly large retail employment portion in Central Utah than in the state as a whole. On the flip side, specialty stores (e.g., clothing, electronics, furniture, sporting goods) contribute much smaller shares of retail employment in Central Utah than statewide. Non-store retailer employment is also in short supply in Central Utah, suggesting the area’s labor force is not benefitting from online sales.

A Fair Share?

Since 2000, food/beverage stores, gasoline stations and motor vehicle/parts dealers have lost labor market share. In contrast, both general merchandise stores and building material and garden dealers have picked up the employment slack as big-box stores moved into the area.

Wages

Retail trade is not known for its excessive wages. In 2016, only leisure/hospitality services showed a lower average monthly wage in Central Utah. Not only are retail trade’s hourly wages lower than average, many jobs are part-time contributing to its lower-than-average standing.

Statewide, the average monthly wage for a retail trade worker measures less than $2,600. Not surprisingly, the average retail trade wage measured even lower in all Central Utah counties. Nevertheless, a wide disparity in wages exists even within the region. In shopping-hub Sevier County, the 2016 average monthly retail trade wage registered nearly $2,100, while in Piute County, the average was a mere $1,200.

The Same, but Different

Retail trade wages also show a notable variety in relationship to the average county wage. Statewide the retail trade industry wage measures 70 percent of average. In the two most populous Central Utah counties, Sanpete (74 percent) and Sevier (73 percent), retail trade wages compare more favorably to the overall county average than in smaller counties. In Wayne and Piute counties, the retail wage measures between 50 and 55 percent of average. Millard County’s figure measures, by far, the lowest at 46 percent. The presence of high-paying utilities jobs in Millard County pushes up the comparative average.

Although the gap between retail trade and total average wages widened statewide between 2001 and 2016, most Central Utah counties showed little change in the relationship between the two wages. This suggests that earnings in other industries are growing at about the same rate as those in retail trade. Piute was the lone exception. Here retail trade wages have improved relative to the average wage since the end of the recession.

Within the retail trade industry in Central Utah, the few jobs at non-store retailers showed the highest average wage followed by motor vehicles/dealers and electronics stores. On the low end of the scale, clothing stores paid the lowest wages.

Is Your Town Growing?

U.S. Census Bureau releases 2016 City Population Estimates

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“A city is more than a place in space, it is a drama in time” –Patrick Geddes

Most of Utah’s cities and towns grew in 2017, according to population estimates recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau. Lehi even ranked 11th among the nation’s fastest-growing large cities. However, not all Utah’s cities and towns experienced growth.

Use the visualization and bullet points below to explore population trends for individual townships.

• The old Geneva Steel Mill site continues to be fertile ground for population expansion. Vineyard was once again the fastest growing city in Utah. However its rate of growth has slowed dramatically since 2015. In addition, Vineyard remains relatively small in size.

• Herriman added the highest number of new residents of any city in Utah (4,550) followed by Orem, Lehi and South Jordan. All showed higher population gains than Salt Lake City — Utah’s most populous city. Herriman also showed the second-fastest rate of expansion in 2016.

• St. George was the only city outside the Wasatch Front to increase its population by more than 2,000 residents.

• The top four population-gaining cities in Utah are all located in southern Salt Lake County or northern Utah County, as the metropolitan population continued to spread outward from the large city centers. Fastest-growing larger communities also tended to be located near the Salt Lake County/Utah County border.

• Due to the nature of percent-change mathematics, several small towns (such as Monticello, Mantua, Francis, Interlaken and Hideout) showed high growth rates although their new-resident counts measured relatively low.

• The Census Bureau estimates that most of the cities and towns showing population declines were located in the Uintah Basin, Carbon County and Emery County. Declines in resource-based employment have spearheaded these population declines.

• In addition, Millard, Piute, Garfield and Wayne counties displayed a significant number of contracting townships.

• Salt Lake County remains home to five of the 10 largest cities in the state. Utah County accounts for another two in the top 10. St. George is the only city in the top-10 ranking located outside the Wasatch Front.

Project on state trust lands not subject to local zoning

A state judge has invalidated a conditional-use permit Wayne County officials issued for a gravel pit on state trust lands on the edge of Teasdale, raising new questions on how much say local governments have over projects authorized by the Utah School and Institutional Trust Lands Administration.

The county last year approved a gravel pit on part of a 120-acre SITLA parcel just upwind from Torrey, the artsy gateway to Capitol Reef National Park, in an area zoned for agriculture and low-density residential. The move outraged some residents, who took the dispute to court.

Judge George Harmond ruled that state-owned land is exempt from county zoning rules, so Wayne County properly declined to "rezone" the parcel in question. At the same time, Harmond said in his ruling the conditional-use permit issued to Brown Brothers Construction to operate the pit is not valid — since such permits are premised on a zoning designation. Salt Lake Tribune

Census Bureau Tool Provides Labor-Force Insight for Utah

By Mark Knold and Lecia Langston

Across the United States, jobs are quantified through each state’s unemployment insurance program. Those programs provide the potential for laid-off workers to receive unemployment benefits — the goal being to bridge the gap between workers’ lost jobs and their next jobs. An eligible recipient’s weekly benefit amount is based upon their earnings from recent work. This begs the question, how does Utah’s unemployment insurance program know how much an individual recently earned while working?

That answer is supplied by all businesses that hire workers, as they must report their employees and pay as mandated by the unemployment insurance laws. Companies identify their individual workers and those workers’ monetary earnings for a calendar quarter. As businesses are identified by their industrial activity and geographic location, it is through the unemployment insurance program that aggregate employment counts by industry and location are calculated.

Yet each state’s profiling of individuals is quite minimal in the unemployment insurance program. The U.S. Census Bureau can bring more light to the overall labor force by supplementing said information with gender, age, race/ethnicity and educational attainment (imputted from American Community Survey responses) for Utah’s labor force.

The Census Bureau packages this information through their Local Employment Dynamics program and makes available said data on its website. Here at the Department of Workforce Services, we recently downloaded and packaged Utah-specific data from said website and summarized it in the attached visualization.

Various data “tabs” are available, presenting Utah’s economy from different angles, ranging from industry shares within the economy to the age-group distributions of the labor force, to gender and race distributions. These labor variables can be viewed for the state as a whole, or by each individual county.

Health Insurance: Who’s covered in Utah?

Census Bureau Estimates Provide Answers about Utah Health Insurance Coverage

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“Most Americans want health insurance.” Jacob Lew

The U.S. Census Bureau just published its Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE) for counties and states while the national discussion on health care laws receives renewed attention. Is this a coincidence? Yes, but a timely one. This post examines how health insurance coverage for Utahns has changed and also the demographics of who has coverage and who does not.

Tracking Utahns Under 65 Years of Age

Small Area Health Insurance Estimates cover the population under 65 years of age. Of course, virtually all residents 65 and older are covered by government-provided Medicare. Because the estimates date back to 2008, two years before the signing of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), the available figures provide an indication of the effect of the ACA on health insurance coverage in Utah and its counties.

More Utahns have Health Insurance

Between 2008 and 2015, the number of Utahns under 65 years old covered by health insurance increased by 284,000. Not only did the actual covered increase, but the share of non-senior population with health insurance also gained ground expanding from less than 84 percent to more than 88 percent — an increase of 4.7 percentage points.

Only Millard County experienced a very slight 0.3 percentage point decline in health insurance coverage although the actual number of persons covered increased by 113. Daggett, Rich, Kane and Grand counties showed the highest growth in under-65 coverage; each showed increases of at least 9 percentage points.

In 2015, counties in northern Utah generally showed the highest level of non-senior health insurance coverage. In Morgan, Davis, Box Elder, Tooele and Cache counties, health insurance rates top 90 percent. On the other end of the scale, rural counties in central and southern Utah display the lowest coverage. In San Juan, Millard, Duchesne and Wayne counties, health insurance rates for those under 65 measured 83 percent or less.

Those under 19 saw the greatest gains. Coverage rates for these young people increased from 87 percent in 2008 to 93 percent in 2015. Utah males experienced a larger gain in coverage between 2008 and 2015 (5 percentage points) than did females (4 percentage points), although females were more likely than men to carry health insurance in both years. Health insurance rates for those with the lowest incomes showed the most improvement (10.4 percentage points). However, their coverage shares remain roughly 10 points below average.

Wait, There’s More…

U.S. Census Bureau releases 2016 county population estimates.

By Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist

“In a region with a growing population, if you’re doing nothing, you’re losing ground.” Stewart Udall

The Census Bureau just released population estimates for counties and metropolitan statistical areas across the United States. Yes, it was just a few months ago that Utah made headlines as the fastest-growing state in the nation. So, it should come as no surprise that several Utah sub-areas also appeared on the fastest-growing lists.

San Juan County ranked as the fastest growing county in the nation with a 2016 growth estimate of 7.6 percent. Keep in mind that less than 17,000 people live in the county. In other words, a small numeric change in this less-populated county can result in a large percent change.

In addition, three Utah regions ranked among the top 20 fastest-growing Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the country. The St. George, Utah MSA (sixth), Provo-Orem, Utah MSA (seventh) and the Logan, Utah-Idaho MSA (20th) all attained top-20 status. See additional information on the estimates after the “jump.”

Pick a Number, Any Number

Because the Census Bureau actually counts the population only once every decade, these figures are estimates. Plus, they aren’t the only estimates in town. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute has recently assembled the Utah Population Committee (UPC) to reinstitute the population-estimates work previously conducted by the Utah Population Estimates Committee (UPEC). The estimates can be found here.

Census Bureau estimates use the same methodology in producing population figures for every county in the nation. Therefore, for nationwide comparisons, Census Bureau estimates may have the advantage. On the other hand, UPC population estimates have the benefit of local-analyst expertise and additional data sources.

Wayne County Economic Update

As is often the case for less-populated counties, what goes up rapidly can just as rapidly come down. Wayne County’s skyrocketing nonfarm job growth rate (16 percent in January) has evaporated in just six months. Whether the county can revive its employment expansion before year end is yet to be seen. Despite a tumbling job growth rate, joblessness has returned to its recent slowly declining ways. Although the unemployment rate remains high, first-time claims activity remains low. Wayne County’s mixed bag of indicators is rounded out by strong performance in both construction-permitting and sales.

• In total, between the second quarters of 2015 and 2016, Wayne County’s nonfarm jobs increased by almost 5 percent. 
• Unfortunately, by quarter-end, the county was experiencing slight year-over employment contraction. 
• On an industry level, retail trade’s job gains were canceled out by leisure/hospitality services’ job losses. 
• Other industries showed minor changes in employment totals. 
• After a brief lull, Wayne County's jobless rate continued on its slow three-year decline and is down nearly a full percentage point from last year. 
• The county’s August 2016 unemployment rate of 7.9 percent reflects a seasonal, tourism-driven economy. 
• First-time claims for unemployment insurance are currently following a seasonal pattern suggesting that no unusual layoff activity has occurred so far in 2016. 
• The leisure/hospitality services industry has generated the lion’s share of new claims so far this year. 
• The county’s average monthly nonfarm wage took a breather from its recent expansion. 
• Between the second quarters of 2015 and 2016, the average wage was virtually unchanged. 
• Wayne County’s notable increase in permitted construction values is being driven by several nonresidential projects. 
• New home building is down slightly from last year. 
• Gross taxable sales were up almost 5 percent when the second quarters of 2015 and 2016 are compared marking four straight quarters of sales gains. 
• Retail trade and accommodations accounted for much of the second quarter improvement.

Show Me the Economy

New Occupational Projections Available

Mark Knold, Supervising Economist
 
 “The government knows everything about everyone.” 

 Fortunately, that statement is not true. Yet society still looks to the government to provide answers to comprehensive and complex questions that have their foundation within individual decisions and activities. One subject frequently directed toward the government is individual-level information about the economy — particularly, what occupations are in demand, what occupations pay well and have lucrative outlooks, and ultimately, what occupation(s) should I build my career upon?

It takes the accumulation of a wide array of individual information to answer these questions. Employers provide the foundation information about the occupations they employ. Jobs are held by individuals, but employers provide the profile information about the job itself, not any particular individual.

Since society desires to profile such a broad spectrum of the economy — occupational profiles and the occupational distribution within the economy — only government is in the unique position to collect, analyze and provide answers for said desire. Yet, no government program or regulatory agency mandates any comprehensive occupational reporting from individuals or businesses. Therefore, government attempts to fill the void with an ongoing, robust and voluntary survey of employers — a survey where employers are asked to provide details about their various occupations, including descriptions, quantities, wages/salaries and location. Through this survey emerges an occupational portrait of an economy.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) structures and funds the survey, yet the individual states conduct the survey. Under BLS administration, all states use the same methodology; therefore, occupational profiles are comparable across states.

Through this survey, analysts discover how industries are populated with various occupations. Accountant is an occupation, yet accountants can be found across many different industries. Other occupations may be more exclusive to certain industries; for example, doctors are largely found only in the healthcare industry. One of the survey’s products is that industries can be profiled with their general mix of occupations. This is called an industry’s occupational staffing pattern.

This brings us back to the original questions: what occupations are in demand, what occupations pay well and have lucrative outlooks, and ultimately, what occupation(s) should I build my career upon? The foundation is to make informed forecasts about how industries will expand/contract over the next 10 years. By applying existing occupational staffing patterns to each industry’s projected change, a trained economic analyst can then make an extrapolation about how occupations will correspondingly increase/decrease. Knowledgeable analyst judgment further refines the occupational expectations, such as knowing an occupation will grow faster than in the past, with the result being a set of occupational projections that accumulate to profile a state or regional economy.

A new set of occupational projections are done every two years to keep the information fresh even though economies do not change dramatically in short order. Because of slow change, updated occupational projects generally continue the overall message of preceding occupational projections. But economies do modify with time, and therefore, subtle changes will arise with each new set of occupational projections.

Utah’s most recent occupational projections are found here: http://www.jobs.utah.gov/wi/pubs/outlooks/state/index.html. These projections look forward to the year 2024.

The occupational profile is structured from the general to the detailed, mimicking the structure of a family tree. First, broad occupational categories are defined, such as management or healthcare occupations; then, subcategories are defined; and finally, individual occupations are defined. Individual occupations are the heart of the occupational projections. But overall patterns and characteristics do emerge when observing the broader categories.

While a Utah statewide profile leads the way, Utah’s local economies are not homogenous; therefore, nine Utah subregions are also profiled. Due to confidentiality restraints and statistical reliability, the amount of occupations available will diminish the smaller a subregion; but, occupations comprising the backbone of a regional economy will be available.

Central Region 

Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist 

The Central Utah projection region consists of Millard, Piute, Sanpete, Sevier and Wayne counties. Central Utah’s employment base is expected to growth at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent between 2014 and 2024. While that rate of expansion is the second-slowest in the state and falls far below the Utah average of 2.7 percent, slower expansion is not uncommon among Utah’s less-populated areas.

Over the 10-year projection period, Central Utah is expected to create 850 job openings each year. Slower-than-average growth means the need to replace workers leaving occupations will likely generate 66 percent of these openings, while new openings from growth will account for only 34 percent. Statewide, new growth is expected to produce a larger share (54 percent) of total openings.

Occupational groups with the largest current employment are expected to also generate the largest number of job openings between 2014 and 2024. Food preparation/serving and sales occupations should show the highest number of openings in Central Utah. These occupations also tend to have high replacement needs. Other occupations projected to show many openings include transportation/material moving, office/administrative support (e.g., clerical), education/training/library and management. On the other hand, the fastest growth occupational groups should be construction/extraction (e.g., mining) and production occupations.

Two occupational groups, architecture/engineering and community/social service are expected to experience slight declines in employment although they will still produce openings because of replacement needs. Other slow growing occupations include legal, protective service, office/administrative support and personal care/service occupations. Despite a low growth rate, office/administrative support occupations will still supply a large number of openings due to current employment levels and replacement needs.

Because many jobs in the Central Utah economy currently require little education and many of these positions have high replacement needs, jobs requiring a high school education or less are expected to account for 71 percent of total openings. Jobs requiring a bachelor’s degree or a high school education should show the fastest growth rates.

Individual occupations projected to produce a high volume of openings in Central Utah often pay lower-than-average wages. This is a pattern common statewide. For example, in Central Utah fast food workers, cashiers, waiters/waitresses and janitors rank among the highest opening-producing occupations. However, general/operations managers, transportation managers, heavy truck drivers, registered nurses and school teachers should also produce a large number of openings in the area.

In an attempt to help provide career guidance, the Department of Workforce Services has attached star ratings to most occupations. These ratings take into account both employment opportunities (openings and growth rate) and wages. In Central Utah, a wide variety of occupations received the five-star rating, which denotes the best employment outlook and wages in the area. The list runs the gamut from registered nurses to accountants to heavy truck drivers. For more information about star ratings detailed occupational projections, see the links in the data visualization.

Wayne County Economic Update

Wayne County’s labor market shot up dramatically in the first few months of 2016. First quarter 2016 marks more than a year’s worth of nonfarm job growth. While the expansion rates have proved erratic, this vacillating behavior is common among small counties. Not only is the employment base expanding, but most industries sported membership in the job-creation club. Joblessness seems to have stalled at a relatively high level, not uncommon to tourism-driven economies. Although the unemployment rate remains high, first-time claims activity remains low suggesting layoffs are not playing a present-day role. Early 2016 growth in both construction and sales also points towards an improving economy.

• Wayne County’s nonfarm employment showed expansion between March 2015 and March 2016 with almost 90 new jobs and a year-over growth rate of nearly 11 percent. 
• Retail trade and leisure/hospitality services added the largest numbers of new employment, ranking first and second in employment creation. 
• Government, construction and healthcare/social services also contributed to the new job totals. 
• Industry-level job losses were virtually nonexistent. 
• After edging down for the better part of two years, Wayne County’s jobless rate seems to have stalled. 
• The county’s June 2016 unemployment rate of 8.4 percent reflects a seasonal, tourism-driven economy. 
• First-time claims for unemployment insurance are currently following a seasonal pattern suggesting that no unusual layoff activity has occurred so far in 2016. 
• The leisure/hospitality services industry has generated the lion’s share of new claims so far this year. 
• The county’s average monthly wage has slowly edged upwards in fits and starts. 
• The first quarter 2016 wage took a breather from the ascending trend displaying virtually no change since first quarter 2015. 
• Construction permitting was off to a rapid-fire 2016 start with the authorization of several large nonresidential projects. In the first three months of 2016, residential permitting ran slower than in the same time period in 2015. 
• Gross taxable sales increased at a robust 12-percent rate between the first quarters of 2015 and 2016. 
• Accommodations, food services and general merchandise stores showed the highest sales gains.