Repositioning higher education

It’s been a lean time for higher education, and Snow College may be in the toughest situation of any school in the state, said Utah Sen. Ralph Okerlund.

“It’s not just a Snow College thing, cuts are going on at campuses across the state,” Okerlund said. “We as a Legislature have asked them to look at their models and make sure they are providing the most bang for our buck.”

What constitutes the most bang for the taxpayers’ buck, according to the Legislature?

“It’s tougher in rural areas where there are not as many employment opportunities, so we have to be smart,” Okerlund said.

Okerlund said the change in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saint’s missionary policy would affect Snow for the next two to three years. Due to the composition of Snow’s student body, the change will have a more dramatic effect on Snow than any other institution in the state, Okerlund said. The loss has been projected to be more than $2 million in lost tuition over the course of the next year.



The debate over the future of Snow College Richfield spilled over into a Richfield City Council meeting Feb. 12.

“They are cutting a lot of things,” said Mike Turner, city council member. He said he is concerned about the closure of programs, the cuts in funding at the Snow Richfield campus, and the potential effect on Richfield’s economy.

Turner said he had talked with Noel Bailey, who is part of a group of retired employees from Snow Richfield that has expressed displeasure with cuts to programs at the campus.

The group of former college officials met with the state auditor’s office in October 2012 to express six concerns, including how a legislative budget line item for $1.2 million for career and technical education is spent. Read more on this subject: Richfield Reaper

Utah January to May 2012 Construction Permitting Activity Update

Five months of 2012 construction permitting data are now available from the University of Utah’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Until at least six months of permitting data are available, the figures are subject to notable changes (construction data tends to be among the most erratic economic indicators). Statewide, January to May 2012 home permits bounced up 31 percent compared with the same time frame last year. In addition, new nonresidential permit values are up 23 percent year-to-year. As you look at this data, remember that permitted-values change rapidly—particularly when it comes to commercial building and these early figures may be reflect large percent changes which will evaporate as more permitting occurs. Here are a few other interesting points from this data release: 

• Rapid employment expansion in the oil and gas fields of the Uintah Basin seems to be spurring new the highest home demands from workers. Uintah County showed the most rapid expansion in new home permits.
  
• Among metropolitan counties, Davis County, Cache and Washington counties show the only home-permit increases.
  
• Washington County’s permits are up 32 percent from last year—its best performance since the recent housing bubble collapsed.
  
• On the nonresidential side, new projects in the eastern/Uintah Basin portion of the state are driving large gains in permit values. Morgan, Summit, Sevier, Juan, Garfield, and Box Elder counties also showed strong residential permitting gains. 

For detailed construction permit data, click here.

Powered by Tableau

Utah Year-To-Date Construction Permitting Activity Update

Four months of 2012 construction permitting data are now available from the University of Utah’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Although early-in-the-year construction permitting data can be fickle (construction data tends to be among the most erratic economic indicators), there appears some early signs of life in new residential construction. Statewide, January to April 2012 home permits bounced up 24 percent compared with the same time frame last year. On the other hand, new nonresidential permit values are down 43 percent year-to-year. As you look at this data, remember that permitted-values change rapidly—particularly when it comes to commercial building and these early figures may be reflect large percent changes which will evaporate as more permitting occurs. Here are a few other interesting points from this data release:

• Rapid employment expansion in the oil and gas fields of the Uintah Basin seems to be spurring new home demands from workers. Uintah County showed the most rapid expansion in new home permits.
  
• Among heavily-populated counties, Davis County shows the most home-permitting improvement.
  
• Washington County’s permits are up 21 percent from last year—its best performance since the recent housing bubble collapsed.
  
• On the nonresidential side, new projects in the eastern half of the state are driving large gains in permit values. Morgan, Sanpete, Garfield, and Box Elder counties also showed strong residential permitting gains. 

For detailed construction permit data, click here.

Powered by Tableau

The City Mouse and the Country Mouse--A quick look at Utah's Urban/Rural Population Split

The U.S. Census Bureau has just released population figures for the nation's urban and "rural" areas. The Census Bureau identifies two types of urban areas: “urbanized areas” of 50,000 or more people and “urban clusters” of at least 2,500 and less than 50,000 people. As of the 2010 Census, there are five urbanized areas--Logan, Ogden--Layton, Provo--Orem,St. George and Salt Lake City/West Valley City--and 31 urban clusters in Utah. 

Powered by Tableau

 As you can see from the map above, Utah's most urbanized areas are along the Wasatch Front. No surprise here. Only Cache and Washington counties show any degree of urbanization outside Utah's metropolitan corridor.

Compared to other counties, Utah is rather unusual in one respect. Utah shows a high percentage of population living in urban areas (almost 91 percent). In fact, it is the ninth most urbanized state in the nation. On the other hand, Utah's urban areas account for a mere 1.1 percent of its land mass. In other words, Utahns are densely packed into urban areas leaving most of the state to be counted as "rural."

Powered by Tableau

This chart shows Utah's urban areas and population densities as determined by the U.S. Census Bureau. To access data tables for these areas, click here.

Powered by Tableau

Utah Farmers, ranchers lose millions of dollars in sheep

Utah farmers and ranchers lost 45,000 sheep and lambs to all causes in 2011, valued at $8.3 million. Lambs lost before docking totaled 18,000, lambs lost after docking totaled 15,000 and sheep one-year-old and older lost totaled 12,000 head. Weather conditions accounted for 31 percent of all lambs lost before docking. This accounted for the largest single cause of death in lambs before docking. Coyotes were a close second at 26 percent of losses before docking. Coyotes accounted for the largest number of lambs lost after docking at 46 percent. Daily Herald

Job growth by County. . .

I like to preach that the year-to-year change in nonfarm employment is the best economic indicator at the local level. With this thought in mind, I've created this visualization that shows both the current job-growth situation for Utah's counties using the most recent "final" data (September 2011). Plus, you can explore each county's historical track record in relationship to the U.S., Utah, and the past recessionary period. Obviously, when it comes to job growth, there's wide variability--from 11 percent job growth to 11 percent job loss. Plus, you'll notice a decided geographic flavor to the current employment expansion (or lack thereof).
 

Powered by Tableau

And the Census just keeps on publishing. . .report on the 65-and-over population

 Nationally, between 2000 and 2010, the population 65 years and older grew at a more rapid rate (15 percent) than did population in general (less than 10 percent). But, don't blame the baby-boomers! The oldest baby boomers were only 64 in 2010. Blame the strong increase on the men. The male growth rate in the 65-plus age group measured almost 21 percent between the two census takings. The female population in that age group expanded by only 11 percent.

Of course, data watchers probably already know that Utah has a fairly small "senior" share--those over 65 comprise only 9 percent of total population compared to 13 percent nationally. In fact only Alaska shows a smaller share of seniors. Nevertheless, Utah's 65 and older population grew by 31 percent between 2000 and 2010--the seventh fastest rate in the country. Low share, but fast growth? What's up? Utah maintained faster-than-average population growth in general which is just reflected in the 65-plus growth rate. In fact, Alaska showed the fastest rate of senior growth in the nation.

Powered by Tableau

The Census Bureau report also tracks data for those 85 and older. The map clearly shows that (unlike the elderly-dense Midwest), all Utah counties maintain a lower-than-average share of individuals 85 years and older.

(Click to Enlarge)

To read the full report, click here.

New TrendLines Magazine available

The November/December 2011 version of our TrendLines magazine is now available online. Many of the articles focus on the effects of the past recession. To access the magazine, click here.

U.S. Census Bureau Releases 2008-2010 American Community Survey Estimates

Data geeks, start your search engines (American Factfinder). The U.S. Census Bureau has just released 2008-2010 American Community Survey estimates--the best source for socioeconomic information. The three-year estimates are available for the U.S., all 50 states (plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico), congressional districts, Metropolitan Statistical Areas, and counties/places with populations of 20,000 or more.

You can access the data via the American Factfinder.

Census Bureau releases intercensal population counts

You may have noticed that the United States only actually counts the population every ten years. How do we track the population in the "intercensal" (noncensus) years? The Census Bureau and, in Utah, the Utah Population Estimates Committee must estimate population counts based on other data (home starts, school enrollment) etc. Obviously, estimation is an imperfect process and once true census counts are available, the estimated years need to be readjusted. (My own county of residence--Washington County--was subject to some noticeable revisions.)

The U.S. Census Bureau has just completed that process for states and counties and you can access those new "intercensal" estimates by clicking here. We'll be updating our products as soon as possible to reflect the new population figures.

2010 Census News

The Census Bureau now a profile "map" available for Utah. This map shows population density by census tract as well as other interesting information from the 2010 Census. You can access the map at by clicking here.

Also, the Census will release the 2010 Census Summary File 1 for Utah to the public on July 28.The Summary File 1 tables will provide the most detailed information available so far from the 2010 Census, including cross-tabulations of age, sex, households, families, relationship to householder, characteristics of owners and renters, detailed race and Hispanic or Latino origin groups, and group quarters. The information will be available for a variety of geographic areas, with most tables available down to the block or census tract level.

Jobs springing up in Utah, from health care to Home Depot

At its medical center in Murray, Intermountain Healthcare formally opened its Homer Warner Center for Informatics Research, a facility dedicated to optimizing the use of information in health and biomedicine. The center employs about 60 people but could add a couple of hundred positions in the next decade, high-paying jobs that in some cases will reach six figures, said Marc Probst, Intermountain Healthcare’s chief technology officer.

On another front, the 23 Home Depot stores in Utah launched a campaign to hire about 500 temporary employees for the busy spring planting season. The best among those part-time hires have chances of being kept on full time by the home improvement retailer, which is looking to hire 60,000 seasonal people nationally, said Marty Tanner, who oversees half of Utah’s Home Depots from an office in the east Sandy store. Salt Lake Tribune

August Unemployment Rates Released for Utah's Counties

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate estimates for most counties edged up slightly in August 2010--just as did the state rate. Keep in mind that the unemployment rate is a "lagging" indicator. In other words, unemployment rates typically don't start decreasing until an expansion is clearly underway.

Counties with the highest unemployment rates include San Juan (12.9 percent), Garfield and Grand counties (both at 10.8 percent), and Juab County (10.0 percent). Both Garfield and Grand counties have notable seasonal, tourist-related employment which contributes to the higher rates.

Counties with the lowest unemployment rates include Cache (5.6 percent), Rich (5.8 percent), Millard (6.3 percent) and Uintah (6.5 percent) counties. Utah's jobless rate for August measured 7.4 percent while the U.S. figure was 9.6 percent. Only five Utah counties registered higher unemployment than the national average.

To see rates for all 29 Utah counties go to http://jobs.utah.gov/wi/pubs/une/season.pdf